A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
